[Excerpts from Mar. 19, 2004 NOAA Press Release]
Following a highly variable winter, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) expect drought concerns to continue in parts of the West, while less snow and warmer conditions in the upper Midwest foretell a lower than normal risk of snowmelt flooding this year. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The predictions were made at a press conference held in Washington, D.C. today.

“There is neither an El Niño nor La Niña in place; therefore, we expect a typical level of springtime variability in temperature and precipitation to occur in many areas of the nation,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Specifically, NOAA meteorologists predict an enhanced likelihood for below-normal temperatures in the northern Great Plains and above-normal temperatures in Alaska, the Southwest and parts of the South, for April through June."

This spring NOAA scientists also expect long term precipitation deficits to decrease in parts of the northern and central Great Plains, while the hydrological drought or water supply deficits are predicted to persist over many areas in the West, especially in much of Arizona and New Mexico.

In contrast to the gloomy water supply outlook in the West, limited snow cover both in the West and the northern tier states (near normal in many areas) makes spring snowmelt flooding less likely.

Full Release

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